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The world is changing due to population and technology

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Socratic Method is one of the oldest and most respected forms of productive debate. There are many unproductive methods. All of which should be avoided. Socratic method is a very old and respected means to quickly and definitively resolve difficult issues by adhering to rules of conversation which are carefully designed to keep the discussion on track and drive it toward rapid and unreserved conclusion. Conclusion is reached when after carefully selecting questions designed to spotlight an affirmation's error, no one involved in the conversation is any longer willing to dispute the rationality of the affirmation.

Wikipedia on Socratic Method
SocraticMethod.net

In this way, conclusion is forced upon those who remain in disagreement, but have no rational reason for their disagreement. One remaining in disagreement is forced to admit "I still disagree, but fail to provide a reason for my disagreement which others perceive as rational." The irrationality of his or her position becomes obvious to those involved in the conversation.

For this reason Socratic Method is very unpopular with politicians who often desire to remain uncommitted on some issues.

How do I comment in Socratic Method if I disagree?

Do not pose an alternate position or attempt to show that there is a better way to handle the issue. This is the error most make in debate. Nothing ever ends up resolved because both sides continue supporting their respective and opposing views and neither view is refuted. Neither party has any reason to concede. Neither party finds it intellectually embarrassing to continue supporting their original position.

First, make sure you disagree. An argument is not won with fancy words, but by discovering the winning side before choosing your position. Is your position winnable? If not, accept it and change your mind, otherwise Socratic Method will reveal your irrationality to others. Once you've answered that, list the assumptions upon which the affirmed statement rests, and which if shown to be false, make the affirmed statement's error obvious to others.

Restate that assumption in language and terminology which make the affirmation's reliance upon the assumption obvious and ask those affirming if they agree with the assumption.

If the assumption is specious, wait to point out the assumption's flaw in your second question after those affirming answer their agreement with the assumption. Post "Considering that you agree with that particular assumption, do you also agree with its obviously erroneous implication, thus.....?

If you have difficulty finding an erroneous assumption or an error of conclusion implied by assumptions made in the affirmation, double check that you still disagree. You may find, to your surprise that you agreed with the statement all along. You just didn't think about it carefully enough at first.







U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030
Bloomberg


New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S.





That's what I'm talking about!

I don't see events in isolation.  If I did, I could not write computer software.  Instead I see the relationship between events.  Is this tapestry of events an accurate picture of the world?  Can I write software that accurately relates the design criteria?  If so, then I know how to compare a "tapestry" to the criteria, or in this case the world, I observe.  There is a much bigger picture surrounding this story.  This is on what I keep harping.  This is the story of mankind.  The "finishing up of man's failure"

This report is just about geopolitical events driven by historically unprecedented human population.  It doesn't even touch on catastrophic natural events.  

Multiple dozens of natural events occurred over just the last five thousand years which went nearly unnoticed by humans because of they did not effect their civilization which did not rely upon technology.  

But...  any one of which would catastrophically disable current world wide electrical grids as well as information and communication technologies.  Total and complete world wide communications black out is the most likely result of one such event whose last occurrence was just 150 years ago.  Carrington Event

Imagine organizing region wide rescue efforts to truck drinking water into major world cities with out cell phones or radios to direct the operation.  Even If communication equipment could be restored to municipalities and the commercial trucking industry within a ridiculously impossible short span of a week, everyone remaining in a city would already be dead or have drunk river water giving rise to pervasive and rampant population wide dysentery.  Hospitals would be hopelessly, catastrophically overwhelmed.  Modern advantages upon which we rely against such catastrophe would prove useless.

Our modern technologies on which humanity very quickly grew mortally dependent arose only in the last 40 years.  Just because most doomsayers are also idiots, does not mean that they must therefore also be wrong.

91% of all human population growth for all time occurred after WWI.  One third of all humans who ever lived, live today.  Two thirds of all humans who ever lived, were born after WWII.  Population growth gave rise to our reliance upon modern technologies such as food harvest, distribution, and processing for preservation.  Since less than only twenty years ago, more than 60% of the world's population now depends for their very lives upon electric pumps to supply daily requirements of fresh water.  NY city alone requires 1.5 billion gallons of water per day.  Even dwindling that amount to only what is needed to stave off mortal dehydration and sanitation to prevent dysentery, is more water than all the tanker trucks in the entire US could supply to just that one city every day.

Ancient Rome used four times the per capita water for personal hygiene that we do today, because of course, their population was far smaller and we no longer have that much fresh water available to us.

A repeat of the 1859 Carrington event, which was merely a news worthy oddity then, would today destroy modern civilization, with out chance of recovery for the balance of this century.  The time for transition to such devastation is the time required to die of thirst, three days.  Third world nations, however, would do just fine.  We will all be third world nations.

Watch now - a History Channel scholarly documentary  "the central tendency for government is to plan for disasters in the context of the normal, because that is all we can imagine."  People who want to live can not stay in cities.  There is no ready source of food nor water.  People who stay, die.

20% of the entire world's population currently lives in just the largest 200 cities.  Technology makes population growth possible, draws and consolidates population to it.  And population growth increases the speed of technological advance.  This is called a feedback loop, which in this case spells out an inexorable single destination for mankind if mankind does not grow out of her hubris.  It seems some smart ancients had this emergent math figured out 2500 years ago.

It was not until 4,800 years of human civilization had already past that in 1800, only 3 percent of the world's population lived in urban areas. By 1900, almost 14 percent were urbanites, although only 12 cities had 1 million or more inhabitants. In 1950, 30 percent of the world's population resided in urban centers. The number of cities with over 1 million people had grown to 83.
The world has experienced unprecedented urban growth in recent decades. In 2008, for the first time, the world's population was evenly split between urban and rural areas. Four years later the percentages moved in the same direction twice as fast as in the previous four years.  

Just four years ago, there were more than 400 cities over 1 million and 19 over 10 million. More developed nations were about 74 percent urban, while 44 percent of residents of less developed countries lived in urban areas. However, urbanization is occurring even more rapidly in many less developed countries.  Time is not on our side.  As time passes, humanity gets more vulnerable and the likelihood of natural disaster increases for the increasing period of time.

The confluence of modern reliance upon technology for basic survival with epoch-making population growth spells a self fulfilling Mayan and Hebrew prophesy for humanity's fate.  The world's religions become inconsequential.  What people believe to be good or moral or the reason for human suffering becomes pointless as humanity's fate unfolds from fundamental truths about reiterations of recursive human behaviors which were already understood by the ancients.  For one reason or another and despite modern's aversion to ancient writings, the Hebrews had it down.

At the time, 2500 years ago, in a world where a very very large city was 30,000, the Hebrew prophets made fantastical claims of future conditions.  They were laughed at.  "Those who mock these prophesies are as stupid as a prostitute who forgets to ask for her payment." -the prophet Ezekiel.  Without discussing how they knew these things, divine revelation, what we call today -emergent math, or dumb luck, of all the world's prophetic writings, they got it right.

They knew what was coming and spelled it out in 70,000 words of detailed prophetic writing comprising 11% of the Hebrew Christian bible which is 91% of the entire world's prophetic writings.

"...fill the face of the world with cities." the Hebrew prophet Isaiah.  "25,000 reeds, within the gates of the city, "  the Hebrew prophet Ezekial describes a populated city more than 45 miles in diameter.  These were ludicrous  claims 2500 years ago.  Of course today, they sound reasonable.  They make sense.

Despite the modern fallacy that ancient civilizations produced copious amounts of prophesy, they did not.  I looked.  I tried to find it.  There are only four sources of ancient prophesy of any significants:  The Chinese just don't deal in prophesy.  While ancient china produced many times the amount of literature than did all the western world, only 60 lines of Chinese world prophesy exist.  The Tui bei tu.

The Vedic, Hindu and Buddhists claim the world will always be pretty much the same, which of course made sense in ancients times, but modern trends show us that this can not remain true.  The Mayan hold out no hope what so ever for humanity.  These three sources of ancient world prophesy are the whole of mankind's world prophesies aside from single scraps or lines from Nostradamus or the Delphic Oracles.  The sum total of these represent a small fraction of the mother load of human world prophesies - the Hebrew prophets, a whopping 70,000 words of world wide prophesy in vivid and gory detail.  

I can't for the life of me understand why doomsayers latch onto scant snippets of end of the world claims when a vast panorama of specific and detailed prophesy exists.

The Hebrews claim that the end of mankind will be much brighter  "They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruninghooks: nation shall not lift up a sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more."  

This is not, however, before the world takes a bruising, which the prophets claim is needed to rid humanity of its hubris.  "This waking vision was shown to me...  I saw what looked like a huge mountain, all ablaze.  It was thrust into the sea... like a millstone cast down from heaven...  It opened a vast pit out of which rose black smoke blotting out the sun and darkening the sky over all people of all nations and languages in the whole earth for five months...  During which time men languished, wishing they were dead, and cursed God."

In ancient times and up to about thirty years ago, this description also made no sense.  A mountain in the sky?  Smoke covering the whole earth?  This gave rise to all sorts of religious interpretations, but of course, it was not until modern astronomy concluded that major impactors still exist in our solar system that such a vision made any sense.  To read an ancient description of events which only in modern times could we visualize is eery.  The prophet writing this had no previous literary illusions on which to draw.  Nothing in Greek literature nor more ancient describe anything similar to such an event.  This description was not only novel to his time, but is consistent throughout the description he provides. The prophet does not ramble on describing many different scenarios but describes only details of an extinction sized impact event from the point of view of observers around the world.

"An earthquakes greater than the earthquake in the days of Uzziah king of Judah felt... in the evening, for those in Damascus, but it is not until morning that the destruction sweeps over them...  Survivors ask where is that police man?  Where is the tax collector?  Where is the government?  But they are gone, swept away by the destruction."  "Two stand together in the field.  One is taken and the other left.  When you feel this happen, there is no time to collect your belongings, just run for safety."

Indeed, such an impact would not be felt world wide immediately.  First, a quake larger than ever experienced would circle the earth in less than an hour.  The atmospheric shock wave would take about 18 hours to pass over the world.  Ancients could not have conceived of this.

It is a modern misconception that all civilizations produced copious numbers of prophesies, from which any modern conception could be drawn.  This is false.  I looked for them. There are about 80,000 words of human prophesy for all time and from all civilizations, ancient and near modern.  70,000 are Hebrew.  Claims that among any set of prophesies must reside some accurate descriptions is the same fallacy as claiming that any infinite set must contain all permutations and is as silly as modern doomsayers claiming that the end will come on Dec 21, instead of over a period of evolving human conditions punctuated by natural occurrences.

However, the claims made by the Hebrew prophets are not only plausible, but strikingly accurate.  

While Bablyon, Egypt and later Greece traded with China, the Hebrew prophet Daniel claimed that "The governments descending only from Babylon shall dominate the world for 5000 years.  Whereas, Babylonia itself shall be conquered by Persia which shall be conquered by Grecia, which shall be conquered by an empire more powerful than Grecia.  This more powerful empire shall not be conquered by another empire, but instead shall crumble into ten nations each ruled by their own king.  These nations shall give rise to a latter nation, who shall not be ruled by a king as are the nations from which she arose, but by the establishment of laws.  This nation starts small, but grows to be as strong as the ten put together and to whom the ten look for leadership.  It is in the time of these ten and the latter nation who rule the world together that the end of man's suffering shall come and a kingdom whose end shall never come shall be established over the entire earth."

Written by the Hebrew prophet Daniel in 500BC during the time of the Greco-Persian wars.  This was just prior to Rome and the European kingdoms rising from Rome's fall and the US rising from Europe but ruled out a king and growing as strong as all of Europe together.

Did the Hebrew prophets accurately asses mankind's inevitable population growth and the vulnerability to natural disaster that her hubris causes resulting in near extinction by an inexorable natural disaster of one kind or another after which she finally resorts to a single one world government?

Or perhaps, they just got lucky with their predictions so far, but get the last line wrong?

Or was it simply revealed to them by God like they claim?

After calculating and showing that the earth's gravitation did indeed cause the moon to perpetually fall around the earth without falling down, Isaac Newton wrote about His investigation into the Hebrew prophets.  In those documents, he came to the same conclusion I did.  It was divine revelation.

Four hundred years ago, Newton wrote of the latter nation, "no such nation exists today.  Time and history shall tell... but the end of man's government and the establishment of a Holy Kingdom can not occur before Anno Domini 2010 but must occur before AD 2060."

Summary of the Hebrew Prophets
Our Heavenly Father, we revere even your name.  Your kingdom shall come and your will shall be done on the earth.  Give us today that which we need today and forgive us as we have forgiven those who have failed us.  Lead us through the trials and temptations of this life and this time so that you may rightfully protect us from the violence of that day in which your kingdom is established.



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