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While I was laying down on one well framed argument against the existence of conspirators after another, I had difficulty explaining away a few very well documented examples of social activity by any other explanation than cliche' conspiracy.

During our friendly debate it occurred to us that I was arguing against the existence of conspirators, not conspiracies. This is how we all do it. We, including myself and my debate partner, presume conspiracies can't exist, because we can't find any conspirators.

I promised her I would apply some math to the subject. I was surprised by the result and adjusted my opinion of what is possible and what is not.

It turns out conspiracies can exist with out conspirators. While the number and likelihood of conspirators decrease as the importance and level of attention on the conspiracy increases, on the other hand, classical conspiracies themselves can exist without the willful participation of anyone.

For those who don't just take my word for it, see the bottom of this email for a demonstration.



This opens up the door for a rational explanation of things like collective consciences and Spangler's zeitgeist, and could validate the infamous (and almost conspiratorial itself) Echelon webbot project and it prognostications as an indicator of patterns in complex and obscure interactions between members of a complex society.

My investigation into this does not confirm the existence of any of these. It only validates them. It demonstrates conclusively that a conspiracy can exist without complicity or even knowledgeable participation.

Leaders must put off the erroneous misconception that conspiracies can not exist merely because no conspirators exist. Conspiracies must be investigated and conspiracies found to be harmful must be stopped.

There are many conspiracies which are helpful. The rules of the marketplace conspire to bring prices as low as competitively possible; and should do so.

Other conspiracies, such as those which pressure commercial airline pilots to conceal observations of unidentified structured craft in flight, may exist. Complaints that news reporting is often politically biased may not be incorrect. Conspiracies which force accredited researchers to fear ridicule for investigating many of the unusual but natural structures which suggest the intelligent design of life must be stopped if humanity hopes to address the unprecedented challenges facing it in the coming century.

To see a demonstration of a conspirator-less conspiracy in a numerical model of a simple society read on.


The Mathematical Model

We all trust our lives to mathematics every day, every time we step on the brake peddle in our car, press the up button in an elevator or board an airplane, we trust our very lives to math, but irrationally, we are suspect of math's ability to tell us anything important or useful about our lives and the society we live in.

Members of society can do many different activities and the activity each choose depends upon what other members do and the level of influence those members have.

A successful model of society must incorporate members, member activities and member influence of other members. To successfully provide insight, it must also reduce or eliminate random variables, reduce the number of members, activities and different influences to a level that does not confound the investigating researchers.

This model allows a user assignable number of members, the default is 225 members. Two activities (a member can be red or can be green) And members influence each other's activity according to this one rule. (If three of my neighbors including myself are red, then I also do red. Otherwise I do green.)

Imagine a satellite view of city suburbs with the roof of each house turning red if the household owns a Ford auto. We could watch cascading patterns of color sweep over the city's neighborhoods as auto advertising campaigns, neighbor and co-worker influences all resolves themselves on the citizens of the city over a period of months and years.

We can watch our very simplified model of human behavior free of all unknown and confusing interactions. The rules of behavior described above are called the Conway Life algorithm which became well known for the many and diverse natural processes the algorithm has been successfully employed to study.


Normal Activity
Model Run 1, (business as usual click to run)

Normal activity has no particular direction. The degree of randomness for the pattern of red activity can be quantified and is more random. Whereas a conspiracy is an orchestrated pattern of activity with a single aim. There is order to the activity and quantifying its randomness yields a value far less random than that of normal activity.

We see most members are green and a few are red. We see the activity spread through the society haphazardly, as we would expect of any activity not directed by a conspiracy.

The patterns we see are analogous to the unexpected patterns of real life activity which result as member's influences resolve in their complex influence relationships. In real life, influence takes many paths and the patterns which are generated are far less obvious. A next door neighbor is physically near, while a family member can live in another city, a co-worker may live on the other side of town. In our model we have simplified influence to one single factor so that we can see patterns more easily if they exist.


Conspiratorial Activity
Model Run 2 (conspiracy)

The beginning pattern of red activity is nearly identical. The single rule of behavior remains the same. No members differ. Yet an orchestrated movement of activity in a single direction emerges.

Notice what looks like a captain of the apparent conspirators. The captain seems to move back and forth herding the conspirators in the selected direction. Of course there is no captain and no conspirators as the model shows the identify of the captain and of all the conspirators changes with each frame of time. None took any orders from any other. None are prearranged nor privy to any information hidden from other members.

This highly organized and orchestrated conspiracy is a product of natural forces.

This model demonstrates conclusively that in a system of members engaging in activities as influenced by the activities of other members, an orchestrated activity with a singular aim can exist in the absence of any intention by any member. A conspirator-less conspiracy.

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Your Comment:         April 25, 7pm

   

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